Well, I don’t think anyone can argue that the last two games have been thoroughly disappointing. Where does Wake go from here?
Well, the following three dates are pretty important:
April 26 – NBA Early Entry Eligibility Deadline (11:59 p.m. ET)
May 19 – NBA Draft Lottery
June 15 – NBA Draft Early Entry Entrant Withdrawal Deadline (5:00 p.m. ET)
First a look at Cleveland St against a Packline Defense. Well, the focus is on the packline that Butler employs, but its still a preview of what we will see on Friday.
Also while digging on this site I found this post about Wake’s rebounding vs NC State. Unfortunately it looks like the video isn’t working anymore.
I couldn’t find the information to do +/- for the Maryland game, so you shouldn’t hold your breath waiting for me to post it.
I present to you the log5 analysis for the ACC tournament using KenPom’s ratings (updated through 3-9-09):
There is one fatal flaw in this analysis: it does not take into account the status of Ty Lawson’s Big Toe (or Duhon’s Rib for that matter).
I think Wake has better than a 13% chance to win the tournament, but that’s based on nothing more than my limited observations.
Another way to look at the same exact chart (for those of you who can’t sort things in their heads):
edit: john gasaway at Basketball Prospectus gives a much better explanation of the log5 analysis.
Wake Forest has officially won a bajillion games this season while not losing an enormous amount. This is a welcome relief from the past three years. Go Deacs.
Onto the lineups and +/- for the Clemson game.
Quick Note: “Starting Lineup” refers to Teague, Williams, Johnson, Aminu and McFarland
In one of the more bizarre stats I’ve seen so far Teague and Smith were at 0 and +1. One of the two were always on the floor and Wake won by 8, but their numbers (0 and +1) are right.
Onto the totals since BYU (excluding VT)
And the winner in per minute +/- is Tony Woods!! Congrats Tony.
And the loser is Gary Clark with an honorable mention for Ty Walker. Keep your heads up guys.
And the winner here is the starting lineup (sorry, Two Centers, you should try to get on the court more often if you want a chance). Two Guard and Johnson/Aminu also performed very well. Speaking of which, two guard lineups with Johnson/Aminu (did you follow that?) were on the court for 294 minutes and had a +/- of 56 (0.19 per minute).
I also wanted to see how some of the different 3 guard lineups worked out. Below are all the 3 guard lineups that played more than 10 minutes together.
I’ll pass on talking about any of this.
I haven’t updated this in a while. There has been some movement in the past month in these. But at this point, these correlations look remarkably similar to those for the season.
The one point where these correlations do differ from those on the season is the correlation between Wake’s FT rate and defensive efficiency. It is pretty straightforward though. Get to the free throw line and you minimize fast break/secondary break opportunities for your opponent. Minimize breaks and your defensive efficiency will probably be better than having a team have a bunch of easy transition baskets.
Looking at the defensive efficiency and opponents four factors, everything seems to make sense. Wake performs better when their opponent turns the ball over, doesn’t shoot well and doesn’t get to the free throw line. But who doesn’t?
