ACC Tournament Log5 Predictions

I present to you the log5 analysis for the ACC tournament using KenPom’s ratings (updated through 3-9-09):

 

 

There is one fatal flaw in this analysis: it does not take into account the status of Ty Lawson’s Big Toe (or Duhon’s Rib for that matter).

 

I think Wake has better than a 13% chance to win the tournament, but that’s based on nothing more than my limited observations. 

 

Another way to look at the same exact chart (for those of you who can’t sort things in their heads):

 

 

edit: john gasaway at Basketball Prospectus gives a much better explanation of the log5 analysis.

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