Pass The Ball #4

What’s Next?

joewfu — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 04:11:24 +0000

Well, I don’t think anyone can argue that the last two games have been thoroughly disappointing. Where does Wake go from here?

Well, the following three dates are pretty important:

April 26 – NBA Early Entry Eligibility Deadline (11:59 p.m. ET)
May 19 – NBA Draft Lottery
June 15 – NBA Draft Early Entry Entrant Withdrawal Deadline (5:00 p.m. ET)

Quick Links

joewfu — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 19:29:59 +0000

First a look at Cleveland St against a Packline Defense. Well, the focus is on the packline that Butler employs, but its still a preview of what we will see on Friday.

Also while digging on this site I found this post about Wake’s rebounding vs NC State. Unfortunately it looks like the video isn’t working anymore.

I couldn’t find the information to do +/- for the Maryland game, so you shouldn’t hold your breath waiting for me to post it.

ACC Tournament Log5 Predictions

joewfu — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 22:37:58 +0000

I present to you the log5 analysis for the ACC tournament using KenPom’s ratings (updated through 3-9-09):

There is one fatal flaw in this analysis: it does not take into account the status of Ty Lawson’s Big Toe (or Duhon’s Rib for that matter).

I think Wake has better than a 13% chance to win the tournament, but that’s based on nothing more than my limited observations.

Another way to look at the same exact chart (for those of you who can’t sort things in their heads):

edit: john gasaway at Basketball Prospectus gives a much better explanation of the log5 analysis.

Clemson Lineups and +/-

joewfu — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 18:51:33 +0000

Wake Forest has officially won a bajillion games this season while not losing an enormous amount. This is a welcome relief from the past three years. Go Deacs.

Onto the lineups and +/- for the Clemson game.

Quick Note: “Starting Lineup” refers to Teague, Williams, Johnson, Aminu and McFarland

In one of the more bizarre stats I’ve seen so far Teague and Smith were at 0 and +1. One of the two were always on the floor and Wake won by 8, but their numbers (0 and +1) are right.

Onto the totals since BYU (excluding VT)

And the winner in per minute +/- is Tony Woods!! Congrats Tony.

And the loser is Gary Clark with an honorable mention for Ty Walker. Keep your heads up guys.

And the winner here is the starting lineup (sorry, Two Centers, you should try to get on the court more often if you want a chance). Two Guard and Johnson/Aminu also performed very well. Speaking of which, two guard lineups with Johnson/Aminu (did you follow that?) were on the court for 294 minutes and had a +/- of 56 (0.19 per minute).

I also wanted to see how some of the different 3 guard lineups worked out. Below are all the 3 guard lineups that played more than 10 minutes together.

I’ll pass on talking about any of this.

ACC 4 Factor Correlations through 3-7-09

joewfu — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 20:08:38 +0000

I haven’t updated this in a while. There has been some movement in the past month in these. But at this point, these correlations look remarkably similar to those for the season.

The one point where these correlations do differ from those on the season is the correlation between Wake’s FT rate and defensive efficiency. It is pretty straightforward though. Get to the free throw line and you minimize fast break/secondary break opportunities for your opponent. Minimize breaks and your defensive efficiency will probably be better than having a team have a bunch of easy transition baskets.

Looking at the defensive efficiency and opponents four factors, everything seems to make sense. Wake performs better when their opponent turns the ball over, doesn’t shoot well and doesn’t get to the free throw line. But who doesn’t?

Updated +/-

joewfu — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 18:56:30 +0000

Now with UVA!! Once again, these stats are for all games from BYU through the UMD game (excluding the VT game).

Lineup Summary

Individual Totals

And just for fun, here are all the lineups that have been on the floor for more than 10 minutes together

Wake at UMD – Lineups and +/-

joewfu — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 05:05:31 +0000

Edit: There is something a little off in the play-by-play. It has Gary Clark checking out at the 9:17 mark in the 2nd half, but then missing two 3-pointers (which matches the box score). It looks like there was some error with Clark, Williams and Weaver. Usually I can work these things out, but it looks like there is a 5 minute portion that isn’t accurate. The box score minutes and the minutes from the substitutions match up so I’m not sure what the issue is.

So while the numbers should be mostly accurate, I’d take Clark, Weavers and Williams numbers with a grain of salt.

Good to see Wake pull out a win on the road.

Here are the individual plus/minus numbers (plus time on the court, points produced and points allowed):

Here is the lineup summary:

The two guard lineup didn’t fair too well this evening as a result of the first half. McFarland and Woods both didn’t play the second half for completely different reasons (injury and a terrible first half, respectively).

And because I’m feeling generous, here are the stats for all the unique lineups:

Sorry about some of the terrible formatting on this last one.

A Quick Link

joewfu — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 17:23:36 +0000

TrueHoop informing you that new age basketball statistics will not be going away.

Yes, I realize it is an NBA blog. Reading about the NBA is infinitely more interesting than watching it, I promise.

Oh, and I found a play-by-play for the UVA game with substitutions so I’ll try to put up some info from that game later today.

vs NC State +/-

joewfu — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 06:19:02 +0000

Exactly like the title says.

I didn’t watch this game. I was out drinking whiskey and beer instead. It looks like James Johnson had a good game from whatever angle you look at it.

From the play-by-play I’m a little curious that Hale didn’t get on the court at all. Was this right?

Not too much other commentary from me. Later duders.

Lineups

joewfu — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 23:02:33 +0000

This will be short and sweet.

The data below is from the BYU game through the most recent Duke game (less vs VT).

Here are some summary stats for lineups. Time is minutes the lineup is on the court (this may not match up exactly to box scores because I have subsitutions done by second, not minute). Points produced and allowed and +/- should be straightforward enough. Right? A junk lineup is basically anytime Walker (Sorry Ty) or any of the walk-ons are on the floor.

I haven’t sorted through any of the other lineups yet, but the starting lineup (Teague, Williams, Aminu, Johnson, McFarland) has been on the court together far more than any other single lineup (119 minutes vs. 25 for the next lineup).

Oh, the total possible minutes for the games tracked are 480. So, the starting lineup is on the floor for about 25% of the minutes. I’d be curious to see how this compares to other teams, but I’m certainly not putting in the effort to figure that out.

If anyone has anything specific they’d like to see (e.g., lineups per game, different lineup totals, etc.) leave a comment and I’ll put something together.